It is hard to predict how fast COVID-19 will spread in the summer because we don’t know how new variants might spread. The last two pandemic summers saw a surge in COVID-19 infection, hospitalization, and death. But some researchers think increased vaccination can help reduce this year’s surge. Prevention strategies like masking and vaccination can protect an infected person against severe outcomes.

The rates of COVID-19 cases this summer will strongly depend on the types of variants developing, enforcement of COVID-19 protective measures, and how up-to-date most people are with their COVID-19 vaccination.

As of June 19, the daily average of new COVID-19 cases has risen to more than 60,000 from the 47,018 it was two months ago. However, between these dates, daily averages have been unstable, going over 121,000.

More people are testing at home, and these cases are often not reported. Because of this, many experts expect that cases are higher than reported.

This increase is partly due to the development of new Omicron sub-variants known to spread rapidly. The newest Omicron sub-variants BA.4 and BA.5 have gained tremendous ground. As of June 11, they account for 21% of the new COVID-19 cases, compared to the 1% they accounted for in the prior month. Due to this spread, cases may continue to increase during summer.

The last two pandemic summers saw a sharp rise in COVID-19 cases, hospitalization, and death. However, with increasing levels of vaccination and booster shots, stronger immunity from past infections, the rates of death and hospitalization have been lower or almost the same as in the past waves. Getting up to date with vaccination and appropriate face masking can protect you from severe COVID-19 conditions.

Researchers are finding out how the temperature in the summer would affect or not affect COVID-19 infection rates this year.

Researchers are learning how at-home testing affects case counts.